Modelling of mitigation pathways for F-gases

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Improved knowledge of regional pathways concerning the use of Ozone Depleting Substances and Fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), options to mitigate this use, the resulting emissions, and how this interacts with the decarbonisation of the energy system;
• Improved modelling capacity regarding the use of Ozone Depleting Substances and F-gases in the refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump sectors, in a manner that increases the availability to Parties to the Montreal Protocol^[1] of modelling tools to inform them on policy options for an ambitious implementation of the Kigali Agreement^[2], including a transition to natural refrigerants, and how this interacts with the decarbonisation of the energy system.

Scope:

F-gases are the fastest growing group of greenhouse gas emissions globally. The Montreal Protocol resulted in decreasing use and emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances and will now also regulate a phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), representing the largest share of F-gas use, of which the majority is used in refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump equipment.

The project should improve the knowledge base of F-gas use and emission pathways under baseline conditions (i.e., policies as they are today), pathways that meet the Kigali Agreement and pathways that outperform the Kigali Agreement. The development of these pathways should also include fluorinated greenhouse gases not regulated under the Montreal Protocol, in particular those covered by the Regulation (EU) 2024/573 on fluorinated greenhouse gases^[3]. It should cover all main regions globally separating at least the countries that fall under Article 5 of the Montreal Protocol and those that do not, and preferably further disaggregating them within these two classes, taking into account for instance climate conditions. The development should assess the interaction with the energy system, notably related to the deployment of HFC-alternatives in refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump equipment and its impact on energy efficiency, the deployment of sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) or its alternatives in electrical switch-gear. Possible impacts on emissions of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) should be considered. The pathways should give detailed insights into the technologies available, including the use of F-gases-free alternatives.

Most F-gas emissions are related to the use in the refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump (RACHP) equipment. This sector is projected to be one of the highest contributors to future global energy demand increases. The action should include the development of modelling tools that allow for the representation at national level of the use of F-gases and their alternatives at least in this RACHP sector, with a view to develop tools that would allow parties to the Montreal Protocol to assess at national level different options of mitigating HFC use, and the interaction with the decarbonisation of the energy system. The action should thus expand and improve the number of tools that can provide such detailed information at country level, including for the so called Article 5 Parties under the Montreal Protocol, in a manner that would improve the knowledge base for parties to implement specifically the Kigali Agreement to the Montreal Protocol as well as allow them to get insights in how to create synergies with the climate mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, including the decarbonisation of the energy system.

All research outputs should be managed according to the FAIR principles^[4]. Beyond open access to scientific publications and research data, open access to software, models, algorithms, workflows and protocols, cell lines, compounds, etc. is required.

All projects funded under this topic are strongly encouraged to connect, coordinate, and participate in networking, intercomparison and joint activities to exploit synergies and maximise complementarities. Activities on energy efficiency of equipment, on electricity grids or the safe use of chemicals would be of specific interest in this context. Projects should also envisage clustering activities with any other relevant projects (in and outside of Horizon Europe) for cross-projects cooperation and exchange of results. Proposals should earmark the necessary resources for these purposes.

[1] Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

[2] The Kigali Amendment (2016): The amendment to the Montreal Protocol agreed by the Twenty-Eighth Meeting of the Parties (Kigali, 10-15 October 2016) | Ozone Secretariat (unep.org)

[3] Regulation - EU - 2024/573 - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)

[4] FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable).