ExpectedOutcome:
Projects’ results are expected to contribute to some of the following outcomes:
- Increased understanding of high impact-low probability events in the short and medium term, both from natural and man-made hazards. These perspectives include cultural, societal, regional, ethical and historical contexts. This should capture new and emerging risks and develop end-user-friendly tools for risk assessors to conceptualise such risks.
- Improved methods/tools for decision-making under uncertainty to prepare for high-impact low-probability events. These methods could include the impact of past events, communication and linguistic components, and regional specificities. These should be developed in close cooperation with end users to maximise application of these tools in practice.
- Better preparedness for and management of high-impact low-probability risks that most, if not all, experts have difficulty conceptualising (the unexpected events), including by developing no-regret options that can address different kinds of impacts irrespective of the cause.
- Improved mapping of i) socioeconomic systems’ interdependencies that can be negatively affected by high-impact low-probability events, and ii) which systems contribute to the materialisation of high-impact low-probability risks by increasing societal vulnerability. This would be supported by identification of interventions where resilience-building would be most effective. This identification could be based on an in-depth understanding of past events, a mapping of the current societies’ cultural sensibilities in a geographical space / region context, and/or their ethical and legal contexts.
- Improved preparedness at an individual level, at local level and at the governmental level, including through clarifying roles and responsibilities around management of high-impact low-probability events. An improved understanding of existing risk and resilience management capacities across Europe at national and regional levels for responding to high-impact low-probability risks that Europe may face.
- Development of appropriate simulation tools to identify areas under higher risk of occurrence of HILP events and development of preparedness plans and management mechanisms, including communication, to address the effects of such occurrence.
- Combination of qualitative and quantitative approach strategies, which encompass practical and probabilistic knowledge to increase the success rate of identifying and adequately monitoring fast developing risks into potential high-impact low-probability events
- Multi-disciplinary reference library around HILP events and their impacts would allow to build up a record of observations that can help quantify the impacts and, by analogy, similar risks that might arise in the future.
- Scenario-building exercises and stress-test risk-related practices in critical infrastructure sectors (e.g., transport, communications, energy) would enhance preparedness and help identify particularly affected social groups while enabling rapid financial and practical support where national organizations are unable to cope or where the consequences are cross-border in nature. Independent, high-quality hubs (national or regional) for up-to-date risk notification and provision of scientific information and communication in a crisis – supported by governments, businesses and industry associations.
Scope:
The risk landscape has changed significantly over the last decades. With new and emerging risks and risk magnifiers such as climate change, cyber threats, infectious diseases and terrorism, countries need to anticipate and prepare for the unexpected and difficult to predict.
At European level, there is, however, no agreed definition nor methodology to characterise HILP and unexpected events, resulting in differing impact scales and a lack of comparability of risk ratings among National Risk Assessments. High-impact, low-probability risks (HILP/Hi-Lo) can be understood as “events or occurrences that cannot easily be anticipated, arise randomly and unexpectedly, and have immediate effects and significant impacts”. They can manifest themselves not only as one-off high-profile crises and mega-disasters (e.g., Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident, eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S. and COVID-19 pandemic) but also as lower-profile, persistent events with equally serious impacts such as flooding, droughts and cyclones which, owing to the low likelihood of occurrence or the high cost of mitigating action, remain un- or under-prepared for.
High-impact, low-probability events (HILP) and their cascading effects raise many challenges for governments, businesses and decision-makers, including defining where the responsibilities lie in preparing for both individual shocks and slow-motion trends (e.g. global warming, tipping points, sea level rise) that tend to increase their magnitude and frequency. A 2019 revision of Decision 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism has brought attention to high impact low probability risks and events, now requiring Member States to take prevention and preparedness measures to address them where appropriate, and the EU fully financing capacities through rescEU to respond to high impact low probability events.
To get the right balance between planning for specific ‘known’ events and creating generic responses for events that are rare or unexpected, research should support the anticipation and management of shock events through improving planning processes, establishing broader risk-uncertainty frameworks that capture such events, enhancing business resilience and responses to shocks, and stepping up communications in a crisis.
Preparing for and managing the consequences of a HILP event will benefit firstly from developing an increased understanding of new and emerging risks, besides the required risk understanding dealt with in topics CL3-2021-DRS-01-01 and CL3-2021-DRS-01-02, and in close connection to them. Improved methods should also be sought to support risk assessors and decision-makers in conceptualising these risks and developing no-regret options to manage them. A thorough understanding of existing risk management capacities across Europe at national and regional levels for responding to high-impact low-probability risks that Europe may face would contribute to improving preparedness at the European level to risks that can affect multiple countries at once and overwhelm national response capacities. Finally, enhancing preparedness for and management of high impact low-probability events cannot happen without an increased resilience of individuals. In close connection to topic CL3-2021-DRS-01-02, research is also needed on how to prepare citizens for unfamiliar risks and what information to disseminate, and how to communicate, during the disaster or crisis-related emergency in order to manage panic, confusion and threats of disinformation.
Given the practical nature of this topic, co-design, co-development, co-dissemination and co-evaluation of the research outputs engaging the intended end users will be particularly important.
This topic requires the effective contribution of SSH disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts, institutions as well as the inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, in order to produce meaningful and significant effects enhancing the societal impact of the related research activities.
Specific Topic Conditions:
Activities are expected to achieve TRL 4-5 by the end of the project – see General Annex B.
Cross-cutting Priorities:
Digital AgendaForesightSocial sciences and humanitiesArtificial Intelligence
