Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all the following expected outcomes:

• advanced knowledge and understanding how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures, supporting the design of long-term, nature positive and equitable policies;
• strengthened collaboration across bio-physical, socio-economic and humanities disciplines, resulting in more integrated and robust scenario frameworks that capture interactions, trade-offs and synergies across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and economy;
• advancement of comprehensive ecosystem prediction models and scenario-based assessments that integrate direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, applicable across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems;
• a consistent and transparent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building, improving the relevance and usability of modelling outputs for policy, business and international assessments (e.g., IPBES, International Panel on Climate Change - IPCC).

Scope:

To address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as Sustainable Development Goals, actions funded under this topic should support the scientific development of A) integrated scenarios, B) predictive models and C) model intercomparison experiments for Member States and Associated Countries. Developments should be verified in case studies covering at least 2 European biogeographic regions^[1] and spanning key economic sectors to inform systemic policy transformations and enable long-term planning for a nature positive society. Proposals should:

• design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework to forecast how natural ecosystems respond to a wide range of human-induced ecosystem interactions including climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions such as conflicts, pressures, and policy interventions. These frameworks should link ecosystem functions with key economic sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and test their resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures;
• make use of long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables to improve reliability and real-world relevance. They should also quantify uncertainty in model projections and ensure scenarios incorporate dynamic feedback loops between ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and identify risk distributions relevant to frontline socio-ecological communities;
• test and assess the suitability of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European application and align modelling approaches with international efforts and assessments under IPBES and IPCC. Proposals should seek to address knowledge gaps identified by the relevant IPBES assessments and if appropriate provide recommendations to policymakers;
• advance model intercomparison capabilities to improve robustness, consistency and transparency in scenario-based assessments. To this end, the suitability of remote sensing data for scalability and intercomparison between different models and across different regions should be assessed.

Proposals should include case studies that cover at least two European biogeographic regions with global relevance to verify the developed scenarios, models and intercomparison experiments. Case studies should consider different geographical scales and explore ecosystem tele coupling across Europe and beyond. Scenario development should involve relevant stakeholders—including public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society—in co-creating narratives and ensuring policy applicability. Socio-economic transitions and equity and justice considerations concerning trade-offs and distributional impacts across regions and communities (i.e. across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and the economy) should be explicitly addressed in scenario assessments. Proposals are encouraged to address livelihood and distributional impacts linked to each nature-positive pathway. Proposals are encouraged to broadly and publicly communicate developed scenarios through interactive simulation interfaces (i.e. at the example of EN-ROADS^[2]).

Proposals should create synergies with and build on existing knowledge and results of other relevant EU-funded projects. Proposals should foresee appropriate resources to ensure close cooperation with the EC Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD) and its Science Service. To this end, proposals should include dedicated tasks and appropriate resources for coordination measures. This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the EC on Earth System Science (ESSI). Successful proposals are expected to cooperate with projects that will be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme. To this end, proposals should foresee sufficient means and resources for effective coordination.

[1] Biogeographical regions in Europe | European Environment Agency's home page

[2] https://www.climateinteractive.org/en-roads/